Difference between revisions of "SAMSON"
(High level introduction to SAMSON) |
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<P ALIGN="left">The risk assessment model SAMSON has been developed for the Dutch government since the mid-80s. The development originally started as | <P ALIGN="left">The risk assessment model SAMSON has been developed for the Dutch government since the mid-80s. The development originally started as an EU project (COST301) and has also known a number of other working titles in the past. | ||
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<P ALIGN="left">The model uses a voyage database which contains all ship movements over a period of time (usually one year), specifying ship type, ship size, port of departure and port of destination. For each voyage a route is constructed on the virtual network of shipping links, based on shortest route but obeying restrictions on e.g. draft and cargo, and with a preference to use a nearby TSS. This yields a number of ship movements (per type, size and direction) for each individual link. | <P ALIGN="left">The model uses a voyage database which contains all ship movements over a period of time (usually one year), specifying ship type, ship size, port of departure and port of destination. For each voyage a route is constructed on the virtual network of shipping links, based on shortest route but obeying restrictions on e.g. draft and cargo, and with a preference to use a nearby TSS. This yields a number of ship movements (per type, size and direction) for each individual link. | ||
Revision as of 22:02, 5 January 2014
SAMSON
The risk assessment model SAMSON has been developed for the Dutch government since the mid-80s. The development originally started as an EU project (COST301) and has also known a number of other working titles in the past.
The model uses a voyage database which contains all ship movements over a period of time (usually one year), specifying ship type, ship size, port of departure and port of destination. For each voyage a route is constructed on the virtual network of shipping links, based on shortest route but obeying restrictions on e.g. draft and cargo, and with a preference to use a nearby TSS. This yields a number of ship movements (per type, size and direction) for each individual link.
The expected number of ship encounters is calculated from the number of ship movements. If the number of meeting encounters is compared with the observed average number of head-on collisions per year a so-called casualty rate may be derived - which has the same function as the causation factor used by IWRAP. The same process is followed for other types of accidents by comparing the exposure to the number of accidents.
| accident type | exposure |
|---|---|
| Collision | Encounter |
| Stranding / Grounding | Stranding opportunity danger miles |
| Foundering | Ship miles |
| Hull/Machinery | Ship miles |
| Fire/explosion | Ship miles |
| Contacts | Ramming opportunity danger miles |
The casualty rates are dependent on ship type and size, on weather conditions and probably also many more factors. The availability of accident data usually limits the number of factors that may be used.
SAMSON also contains models for the damage in case of a collision or contact. Together with typical bow forms and tank layouts for the different ship types and sizes, an estimate of the outflow of cargo and fuel oil may be made.